5 conditions that can be met quickly.

So our new NB premier has followed through on his campaign promise and put a moratorium on shale gas development in NB. As a supporter of this incredible economic opportunity for NB, I will admit I am disappointed in the delay in developing this industry, and my hope is that it does not kill the oil industry interest in the industry in NB.

My first reaction to the moratorium was disappointment, and the residual effects of that reaction remain, but I am now trying to see the positive here. Premier Gallant has essentially said he wants to get his ducks in a row before continuing with this industry. Fair enough; there is plenty of science and statistics available that show a well regulated shale gas industry can be developed with minimal risks to the environment. A proper regulatory scheme should also include a solid royalty structure that ensures the province makes a fair share of money off the development of the resource. So by all means Premier Gallant, make sure you understand the regulations and the royalties, but do it quickly.

Time is of the essence here; if the moratorium lasts too long, the industry will lose interest and move on to other regions. The current drop in oil prices will be temporary...even the majority of the OPEC countries cannot make money when the price is this low...it will rebound back to more realistic levels and shale gas will continue to make economic sense.

The 5 conditions that Premier Gallant says must be met to have the moratorium lifted are all conditions that the government itself can fulfill; so it is within their power to get them done quickly.

1. The aboriginal people have been asking to be consulted for years, so I am sure they will be available to consults at minimal notice. Do the right thing and offer them a percentage of the royalties for development done on their land; makes perfect sense and will help them improve conditions in their communities.

2. Development of a royalty structure; this should be easy, the previous government had a structure in place; so just make whatever adjustments you think need to be made and be done with it. You can change the name and authors and rebrand it as a Liberal plan, but it shouldn't need much work, its mostly done. If you need examples of royalty plans that work, talk to Saskatchewan, BC and Alberta.

3. The plan for mitigating the impacts on public infrastructure and address water disposal; again, this has been mostly done by the previous government, and surely you asked the Albertans about how they have done this, and lessons learned, when you were out there a few weeks back; so this should be easy to check the box off. Again, ask your colleagues in Saskatchewan.

4. Clear, credible information about the health, environment and water impacts of fracking to develop industry leading regulatory regime; this was done by the former government, but if you want more information, there is plenty out their. This has been a hot topic in North America in recent years and their is a wealth of information available. Ask the ADMs and other civil servants who have been looking at this for 3-4 years now, they can give you lots of info I am sure!

5. Get a social license; this can be really easy to check off because this is so vague, no one knows what it means. So; you can have a quick round of public consultations (public or private) and then announce that you have gained a social license. Another easy one to check off.

So, as you can see, most of the work is already done. In a practical sense, the moratorium could be lifted within 6 months....if you really want to get the work done.

Mr. Premier, you say you want to right the fiscal ship that is NB's economy, and you say job creation is your top priority. If that truly is the case, you need to make fulfilling the 5 moratorium conditions a number one priority.

Get these conditions met as quickly as possible, so we can continue "moving NB forward", as you are keen on saying.

Glorious and Free

So it seems we have lost our innocence; or those who still had it have anyway. The violence and threat of violence that is present around the modern world has hit home for Canadians. The killing of one of our soldiers in Quebec on Monday was a crack in the mask of innocence, but the attack on our parliament yesterday grabbed that mask and shattered it on the ground.

The fact that we are at war with a sophisticated and far reaching enemy has not just been highlighted, but has jumped up and slapped us in the face. For too long, we have collectively had the attitude that the terrorists were not interested in friendly old Canada; who would want to hurt us; we invented peace keeping, we had one of the few non-violent independence movements back in the 1860's. We are the kinder, gentler of the North American cousins.

But we have stepped up and said we will help fight an enemy that most feel must be stopped. To be clear, this is not a fight against Islam...this enemy is very far from the core tenants of the Muslim religion. This enemy is brutal and an affront to human rights, human decency and wants nothing less than the destruction of all who disagree with their extreme beliefs. This fight is not a veiled move to secure oil reserves, or avenge a terrorist attack, as some recent fights have been; this is akin to the scourge that was Hitler and Japan in 1939. We have to help in this fight, it is our responsibility as a modern nation.

But still, even for a witness like myself, who I like to think had no innocence about our vulnerability; it was shocking to see and hear about a gunman (or multiply gunmen) attacking our nations most sacred places. I watched in shock the video of gun fire in the Hall of Honour. As many have, I have walked that hall, I have browsed the front lawn of Parliament...this violence and terror there was shocking.

We live in a world were groups want to attack innocents and where implements of mass murder (guns and bombs) are fairly easy to obtain. Our armed forces and police organizations are not just there to fight overseas and provide security for parades and protests...they carefully train, plan and run security drills for a reason.

 Barricades around important landmarks and metal detectors at entrances are common place in most other areas of the world. You cannot get close to the front door of the White House, of Congress, of Buckingham Palace or many other landmarks around the world. In Paris, it is hard to ignore the presence of heavily armed soldiers near all the famous landmarks. Most of the world has lost its innocence when it comes to security and terrorism; now Canada has also.

We are no less safe today than we were yesterday, but we are now more aware of that safety or lack there of. When our military asks for more funding, or our security experts put more barricades and security procedures in place, we will better understand why these things are necessary.

BUT... we will remain glorious and free, and we will remain the friendly, polite, neighbour with the great sense of humour on the world stage. We will still say thank you and sorry and we will still be the one's who soften the American ways and strengthen the European tendencies and personalize the Asian efficiencies. We are still the model for a free, socially responsible and secure nation, and that is why the terrorists want to change us...lets not let them have the satisfaction.

O Canada, glorious and free!

Johanna Jessie Mackenzie - A force of nature

My Grandmother passed away this evening in her home in Cape Breton...she was very sick since the weekend, and I was compelled to write about her a couple of days ago, it became a tribute. My wife encouraged me to post it here:

A force of nature…not a cliché, but the truth. Since I was very young, my grandmother has been just that to me, and to all who knew her well. Not a blustering wind, or a rushing rain storm, but a calm breeze or a quite glen in the woods. She never raised her voice, never got overly excited, but her strong hands were attuned to the places she grew up. Born and raised in the middle of Bras d’Or lake and never living far from its shores for all her 96 years, she was apart of the place. She was gentle and calm, always telling us to “leave those poor beasts alone” when we removed a hornets nest, or shoo a ferret or mouse from the house.  She was as close a person I have ever know to mother nature. Not that she communed with nature like a hippy, but she appreciated and coveted being exposed to the wonders and hardships of nature. She loved nothing more than the simple pleasures of a walk down the road or a swim in the lake.

She raised a family on the shore of the lake and helped raise all of us grandchildren too. She spoiled us, but not too much, and indulged us but also kept a close eye. During my sister’s sicknesses as I grew up, I spent a lot of time with my grandmother in West Bay, and despite my fear of the deep dark and her illusive cat Dusty, I looked forward to my stays with her. She always made sure she had a fresh batch of my favorite treat, cinnamon buns, ready when I arrived. We would go into town and buy fresh mackerel and other things and have great meals in her kitchen. She had fishing rods on hand so I could drop a line in the brook or the lake…though I never caught anything.

In her later years she lost the ability to go for a walk or swim in her beloved lake, but in her moments of clarity, her stories were always about the lake and the adventure that it was to live on an island in the middle of a lake.

While she was raising 5 sons and a daughter, she worked at the lumber camps feeding the workers, and boarded more workers and fed them at the house. Then in another phase of her life, she became one of the longest serving mail workers in Nova Scotia. She was proud of the fact that she trained many mail workers and took pride in the important service of delivering the mail. The house in West Bay housed the mail office through the 70s and 80s, and as happens became one of the hubs of the community.

My grandmother did enjoy retirement, going to Florida for the winter for serveral years and becoming a regular at card plays around the county. As she began to fail and was not able to drive, she still walked several miles a day and easily climbed the hill to her daughters house. In later years, when she could not walk to the lake or even swim in the lake any longer, her favorite activity was to go for a drive along the lake shore. Her main perch in the house over the years overlooked her lake. Even after 90+ years living near it, she always marveled at the beauty of a sunset on the lake, or at some bird on the lake.

I had the luck to spend a fair bit of time with my grandmother during the formative years of my life and in hindsight, I can see that she helped form the man I have become. Everytime I see a sunset, or wonder at some landscape I see as I travel the globe for my job, I am channeling the wonder and respect for nature that she taught me. I am told I have an easy nature and an ability to put people at ease; this comes from both my father and mother; but I saw the power of an even keel from my grandmother too. An even keel that can gain speed and ram you if you got out of line. Her dry humor and quick wit when critiquing someone are legendary, and I like to think I carry some of that charm. Only a few months ago, when one of the homecare workers asked me about my kids, Grammy quickly commented “You don’t have any goats do your Mark?”, her years teaching her brothers and sisters on the island showing through. I didn’t think she was listening, and could not help my laugh.

Growing up in rural Nova Scotia on the shores of this lake formed a granite back bone in this force of nature, and we can all attest to the toughness of our grandmother. Losing a husband, losing 2 sons, a shattered arm, and countless other set backs could not slow her. Even when her body started to fail her, she pushed on longer than others would have had the fortitude to do so. She comes from hardy stock and the hardships of lake living only tempered that stock and made it seemingly indestructible.

I will miss my grandmother, but it was her time. She lived all the life she was given, but it is time she had a rest. I take solace in the idea that she is now at peace and watching over us all. This place, this lake, will always resonate with her presence.

Who should I vote for? Dominic, Brian and David

Why I am voting for....

As the 2014 New Brunswick election draws to a close in just 4 days, I think I have finally made a choice of who I think the next premier should be...but it has been a very hard decision. I think this is a very important election in NB, as we are at a turning point in the provinces history. We have unprecedented debt and deficit, and without major changes we are going to drop off a fiscal cliff. There is a potential answer to our problems, but it requires development of our natural resources which we need to do carefully to ensure we do not mortgage our kids future.      

Our government (as with many democratic governments around the world) is in need of streamlining and innovation. We need to trim the fat and become more efficient with service delivery; and citizens need to adjust their service expectations, if we are to get out of the mess.

So how does one vote in hopes of getting the right leadership to guide us through this "righting of the ship"? If you believe development of shale gas in the province is a life line we need to grab, the choice seems easy at first. The PCs are the only party who are campaigning on full exploitation of our natural resources in a responsible way...so if you agree with that, it should be an easy choice. BUT...the PCs have a history in recent years of inactivity and too much reliance on public consultation. Until about 12 months before the election, they were a bit lethargic with their actions.

Further complicating the choice is the fact that both the NDP and Liberals have left the door open for shale gas development going forward. Both have said they would put a moratorium in place "until they can further study the practice and ensure it is safe". Any savvy voter can see through that...we can see how easy it will be to look over the current data once they get into office and say "OK, now that we look this over, what do you know, the PCs were right, it can be done safely".

I expected so much from Brian Gallant when he got elected leader of the Liberals. I thought we might have a bright young man who could grab the reins of the party like Frank McKenna did in the 90's and do what needs to be done to right the ship. Unfortunately, he seems to have been dragged down into the opposition trap of simply opposing everything the party in power does without offering alternatives. Now in the election he is making promises of spending that I think are irresponsible with the provincial finances in the shape they are in. I have watched throughout the election waiting for glimmers of the potential I think he might have as a leader to shine through, but my gut tells me I am seeing a puppet for the back room of the Liberal party; not a true leader of change.

To be fair, David Alward doesn't strike me as a dynamic leader who is grabbing the reins either; but at least his team is making a stand for something. I admire that they seemed to have made a decision that development of natural resources is the way out of the mess, and they have stuck to that message, regardless of pollsters and protesters. I am not impressed by the lack of leadership in enforcing the law on a couple of key occasions. Negotiating with the shale gas protesters who were illegally blocking a provincial highway and damaging private property should never have happened. And the lack of access to abortions. Regardless of moral feelings on abortion, the supreme court of Canada has deemed it the law since 1988, so the government of NB should be complying.

Dominic Cardy of the NDP has intrigued me since he took over the party. I have long watched the NDP to see if they could become a viable 3rd option as a governing party. Like many observers, I was pleasantly surprised by his intelligent choice to bring the party closer to the centre. He is a good speaker and his policies are well thought out. He makes sense on government efficiency and seems to have a realistic handle on the role of government in business development. A respected friend of mine made the interesting observation at one of his speeches early in the campaign; she said "imagine if he was the leader of the Liberals". This hit to the core of the issue with Cardy; he is a strong leader with a vision for the province, but he is leader of a party who is not quite ready to govern yet. And in a province that may not be ready to think outside the 2 party box. My thought is that the Liberals would win in a landslide if Dominic Cardy was their leader.

So based on all this, who do I think should run the province? I have struggled with this for months, and basically it comes to a gut feeling. My gut tells me that Brian Gallant is a sequel to Shawn Graham, and I fear his plan to save the province includes too much spend and not enough revenue. I just don't feel like he is going to be a strong enough leader to guide the province through this rough patch. I feel like he is saying whatever he needs to to get elected, and I don't like it. The Liberals need to lose this one to see that they need to change their messaging away from the political barbs and towards more solid, detailed policy.

I have considered voting NDP; but beyond Mr. Cardy and his immediate entourage, I don't think that party is ready to run the province yet. I think they need to build up to it; get some seats this time, show us they are legitimate contenders, and then maybe form a government next time. I like their platform, and I think we need intelligent leadership, which he could bring to the table. I have had the opportunity to meet Dominic and speak with him on the issues and I think he has what it takes; but his party is not ready yet. I could be wrong, and boy will it be interesting if I am and he wins a surprise mandate!

So I am left with the PCs. I respect David Alward and I have no doubt he wants the best for the province. I think he was a bit surprised to be premier 4 years ago, and unfortunately it took him 2.5 years to get things going. That put us 2.5 years further into the fiscal hole, but we have begun to dig out now. Supporting a well regulated natural resource based economy makes good sense for New Brunswick. I have faith in Blaine Higgs to streamline the government and balance the books. I think it would be further along at the moment if the PC caucus would get out of his way and do what he wants to do.  I am going to vote PC because I want to give them 4 more years to finish the job; although I have more faith in Blaine Higgs and the rest of the caucus than I do in the leader. If Mr. Alward will listen to his team, they can fix our province.

Unfortunately, once again I am voting for the lesser of two mediocre offerings; maybe I should be more bold and go for the new kid on the block?

What if it can be done right? A view of NB in 2025

As the debate on shale gas exploration and production continues in New Brunswick, I am struck by the negativity that pervades the debate. There have been some very negative pictures painted by anti-shale movement as to what the province may look like in the future with shale gas. These pictures assume an unregulated, free for all of exploitation and trampling of citizens rights.

Does it not make sense to consider the flip side of the coin; what is the best case scenario? Allow me to paint a more positive picture of the outcome. This vision assumes strong leadership, a strong revenue model for natural gas, and a well enforced, adaptive regulatory regime that puts the protection of the environment and welfare of citizens as top priority.

-----------------------------------------------------------

A Vision of NB in the year 2025:

Despite having the most rigorous regulatory scheme in North America, large proven reserves of natural gas have made New Brunswick a hot bed for natural gas activity. The New Brunswick government has shrewdly insured that the industry remains one of the safest in the world by reinvesting a percentage of the revenue created into enforcement procedures and personnel. Other jurisdictions have mirrored New Brunswick's regulations and as such the natural gas industry in general has become more environmentally friendly and more safe.  The royalty structure put in place has ensured that all New Brunswickers benefit from the bounty of natural gas, and other natural resources. Intelligent investment of this bounty will ensure that the financial benefits of natural gas development are see in generations to come in the form of new industries and a better province.

The key to the development of a safe and well regulated industry was the establishment of an independent monitoring agency which is free of political and industry influence. This agency monitors the industry and its effects based on sound scientific practice and research. As the industry kicked off in 2015-2016, the agency invested in a province wide program of data collection to establish a baseline for water and health quality which future industry effects would be compared to.   

The pressure placed on exploration and production companies by the strict regulations has driven innovation in the process of hydro fracking and has resulted in the development of environmentally neutral fracking fluids. Several large producers were already in the process of researching these alternatives to potentially hazardous fluids, and the strict regulations and shared liability initiatives fast tracked these research and development projects. 100% of the wells fracked in New Brunswick as of 2020 were being fracked with environmentally neutral fluids. This means the fluids pumped into the wells is non-toxic and the fluids coming back to the surface are easier to filter and reuse. The few spills that have happened had little or no environmental impact.

New Brunswick has leveraged the University of New Brunswick's reputation as a leading engineering school to establish a petroleum engineering school that has quickly gained a reputation  for developing some highly innovative technologies that are being adopted around the world. This work has attracted investment from large oil and gas service companies and their sponsorship has helped grow the Universities campus. It is quickly becoming one of the global centers of sustainable and environmentally conscious resource development engineering. The strong bioengineering hub that was established in New Brunswick in the early 2000's has contributed to this work with development of bioengineered water filtration systems to cleanse the water used in hydrofracking.

Another key area of study has been in remediation of well sites. The hydrofracking process produces useable gas for about 10-15 years on average, so as wells reach the end of their life cycle, the New Bruswick regulations stipulate that the well site are must be remediated to its pre-production state. This has lead to a hub of remediation services companies that specialize in remediating these sites.

The establishment of the research hub on sustainable development of natural resources at the University of New Brunswick has resulted in New Brunswick becoming a leader in these sustainable development technologies.

These academic developments have combined with legislation that requires oil companies working in New Brunswick to hire locally and invest locally to establish a highly skilled petroleum industry labor pool that will be contracted out around the world as natural gas industry in New Brunswick moves from exploration and establishment phases  to production phases.

The revenue's created by the production of New Brunswick's natural gas reserves has allowed the government to balance its budget, and this has resulted in much better services for citizens. The strong emphasis on government renewal during the years before the natural gas revenue has resulted in a much less bloated civil service and has helped ensure the new money is spent efficiently.

In the health care system,  wait times have disappeared and access to innovative diagnosis and treatment technologies have increased. The ageing population continues to put a strain on the health care system, but collaborative care clinics and preventative health programs have made for a healthier population. Balanced budgets and natural gas revenues have also allowed the government to provide better funding for recreation facilities such as arenas and free gym access for low income earners, thus resulting in a more healthy population.

The revenues created by has allowed the government to subsidize the development of alternative power generation technologies such as wind power. This has meant that NB Power has been able to decommission the dirty coal power plants at Coleson Cove and Belledune.  The local economic impact to the closing of these plants has been more than offset in the expansion of the Belledune deep water port and the Saint John refinery and LNG port.

New Brunswick is now considered one of the leaders of sustainable power generation with much of its power generation coming from wind and hydro. The refurbishing of the province's hydro power generation plants, and building of wind power development in Tantramar Marsh, northern parts of the province and some off shore areas have been bankrolled by  natural gas revenues and legislated local investment by oil companies, and have allowed NB Power to phase out the ageing Point Lepreau nuclear power station.

One of the key beneficiaries of development has been the First Nations communities. Before natural gas development, these communities often struggled to survive and saw some of the worst living conditions in New Brunswick. Inclusion in the robust royalty schema in New Brunswick has allowed these communities to turn around this trend. The First Nations traditional role as guardians of the natural environment has lead them to be the key drivers of the new sustainable economy in New Brunswick. They have benefited from development of wind energy on their lands, and a government program encouraging First Nations members to learn more about these technologies have lead to a good ratio of new sustainable technology graduates coming from these communities.

The roads and transportation infrastructure in the province have been upgraded and refurbished and have resulted in more efficient transportation of goods and services. Admittedly,  some roads had to be upgraded to handle increased traffic loads during initial commissioning of natural gas wells, but those upgraded roadways remain after the commissioning is complete.

A high speed rail line connecting Toronto, Montreal and Halifax making stops in Fredericton and Moncton is being considered, and could make travelling by efficient rail a more attractive alternative, thus taking some automobiles off the road, reducing fossil fuel emissions.

The now vibrant New Brunswick economy is resulting in increases in population growth and economic development, which has helped add to the provinces tax rolls. This results in more money to pay for innovative and efficient service delivery to citizens, including a much more inclusive and effective public education system,  and subsidized post secondary education.

The population growth and economic development has also meant an increase in air traffic, and this, combined with the new revenues, has made a centralized provincial airport in Sussex a viable option. This consolidation of the air traffic from the provinces largest centers will result in much better flight options and will eliminate the monopoly of the market by one carrier. Better air access will then create more population growth and economic development, further increasing the living standards of New Brunswick citizens.

The increased living standard in New Brunswick has continued to attract high technology and IT start ups, and trends such as the increase in the quality of health services and improvement of the transportation infrastructure , has allowed New Brunswick to attract technology companies, without having to offer tax breaks.

As a result of the new opportunities in New Brunswick, more and more immigrants are opting to immigrate here instead of Toronto or Montreal, bringing an influx of investment capital and expertise to the province.

A better transportation infrastructure, collaborative care clinics, provincial spending on recreational facilities, increased spending on tourism industries, availability of jobs and the all round betterment of the economy has lead to a revival of rural communities. The trend to have rural citizens move to larger centers or other provinces to make a living has reversed, with many rural citizens returning to their small hometown communities. Many of the aging citizens stay in their lifelong homes.

A balanced government budget has also allowed for more support of traditional industries such as forestry and fisheries by allowing the government to better subsidize the industry when market pressures make it hard to make a living, and provide investment services for value added industries.  

The responsible development of the natural gas resource has allowed New Brunswick to reverse many of the dire trends seen in the early 2000's and has allowed the province to develop modern industries such as sustainable energy and technology innovation. Rather than turn the province into an industrial wasteland, the well regulated and sustainably developed natural gas industry has led to a more environmentally friendly province with a more diverse economy. The strategic investment of the revenues created by the industry has lead to the development of sectors and economic engines that far exceed the life cycle of the natural gas industry.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A very positive focused vision, I will admit, but most of it is well within the realm of possibility. It all hinges on the having the best regulation scheme possible, enforcing those regulations, a robust royalty schema  and putting pressure on the private sector to develop the industry responsibly. I know from personal experience that the environmentally neutral fracking fluids is in development, and when these are produced they will change this debate drastically.

I see this industry and its potential revenue to the province as a catalyst for change. I have attended information sessions put on by anti-shale gas proponents, and amid the fervor over environmental concerns, mistrust of government and large companies, there are some nuggets of insight. The idea of investing in the "new economy" and developing resources in a way that focuses on job creation and benefit to citizens, the idea of investing in universities to provide innovation in the green economy; these are good ideas that can be seeded and accelerated by the revenue created by natural gas development.

As I said at the start, strong leadership in government and intelligent choices will be required to make even part of the positive vision presented here a reality; but it can be done. 

Shale Gas: Just the facts please...

Although I have written several posts on shale gas development in New Brunswick, I thought it was a good time to post another blog attempting to present some facts on shale gas exploration and extraction. My goal is to present facts for my fellow NBers to decide for themselves if this industry is something they should support. I admit, based on a review of the facts, I support the development of a shale gas industry in New Brunswick, but my attempt here is to present facts, with no opinion.

One foundational fact to keep in mind when looking at this industry is to make sure you compare apples to apples when looking at the experiences of other jurisdictions. There has been a lot of comparison to the shale gas industry in the US, particularly Pennsylvania, and predictions that any issues that have happened there will inevitably happen here. The problem with that logic is that the regulatory environment of the US shale gas industry versus that of the Canadian, and New Brunswick, industry are vastly different.
Where New Brunswick has implemented the most stringent regulations on the shale gas industry in the world, the US industry is virtually unregulated. In the Energy Policy Act of 2005, then President Bush actually exempted those companies doing fracking from the Safe Drinking Water Act and Clean Water Act, and removed the requirement for companies to disclose the contents of their fracking fluids. (See here)

The NB government has no such exemptions; the contents of the fluid must be shared with government regulators, and the industry practices must comply with clean water laws. In fact, the NB regulations go a step further than that and require more robust testing of water before and after development, and the companies working in the industry must establish a remediation fund to deal with any water issues before they start development.( See an overview of water protection regulations here )

Lets continue to focus on water, which seems to be a main hub of concern in most debates/discussions of shale gas development. Much of the discussion has focused on how many millions of gallons of water is used in the fracking process. But as with any large number, or any number in general, we need to put these water consumption numbers into perspective. According to this article , the percentage of fresh water used by all 27,000 wells completed in the USA in 2011 was just 0.3 percent of all freshwater consumption in the USA for the same year.

This same article suggests that on average a fracked shale gas well uses about 5 million gallons of water. So using that generous estimate, let's look at what that amount of water would mean in New Brunswick. I had a hard time finding the average annual rainfall for all of New Brunswick, so let's assume the city of Fredericton is close to the province wide average. Fredericton gets 42 inches of rain annually. That calculates to 1.1 million gallons per acre/year (based on the table on this USGS website). A quick Google search shows that New Brunswick has an area of a little less than 73,000 square Km, or 18 million acres. To simplify the math a bit, let's say each acre receives 1 million gallons of rainfall per year. So 18 million acres will get 18 trillion gallons of rain per year. To put that into perspective, it would take over 4 million shale gas wells to use up all the rain that falls in our province per year. And it is very unlikely that New Brunswick will ever see more than a 1,000 wells, even if the industry takes off. If we go with that optimistic number of 1,000 wells, with 5 million gallons being used per well, we would see 5 billion gallons of water being used. That sounds like a lot, but it is only 0.02 % of the 18 trillion gallons of water that falls on NB in  an average year. And remember, even if 1,000 wells are producing in New Brunswick, they won't all be drilled in one year.  

The reality is that New Brunswick has an abundance of fresh water with a very healthy annual rainfall replenishing it every year. There are several other industries that have been operating in New Brunswick for hundreds of years that consume more water than shale gas does, and we have no shortages of water in New Brunswick.

The other concern when it comes to water and shale gas development is the potential to have water supplies tainted by fracking fluids. The reality is, the shale gas deposits in New Brunswick are 1-2 km from the surface, and the average depth of our water table is around 50-100 meters. So the fracking fluids would have to seep through 950-2000 meters of rock of various geologies to get to the water table. And add to this the fact that the natural gas we are looking to extract has been held in place under a "cap rock" for thousands, if not millions of years. Reservoirs of hydrocarbons (oil and gas) are usually formed when the fluids are trapped under a layer of harder, less permeable rock. Fracking is not going to dislodge this cap rock.

The risks to groundwater are well described by UNB Geologist Adrian Parks paper in the Journal of New Brunswick Studies paper on the shale gas industry in New Brunswick; which you can read here.
There have been several examples cited where shale gas development has been blamed for spoiling people's wells. Some of these examples have been discredited when it was learned that the areas sited have had high level of methane in them many years before the shale gas industry arrived. Most of the other examples have been traced to poor casing practices. Let me explain this:

When a well is drilled for shale gas (and other types of hydrocarbons), the hole is lined with cement (a casing) that is supposed to maintain the integrity of the hole. If the casing cement is of a poor quality, or the casing itself is not properly poured, the casing can fail, allowing fracking fluid of hydrocarbon's to leech into the groundwater. In the US, there are no regulations in regards to these casings. The stringent New Brunswick regulations require inspection of these casings as they are being poured, and requires a triple casing of the wells. So the cement quality is regulated, the pouring is regulated, and then 2 fail safes are put in place to ensure the integrity of the well casing.

The industry is working hard to find environmentally neutral fracking additives, which would eliminate and risk of contamination. I have personally visited 2 such labs; one at the largest fracking service company in Canada, and the other at the largest oil and gas service company in the world. Both report that they are close to releasing environmentally benign fracking additives. 

As Adrian Parks notes in the aforementioned paper, there are risks involved in shale gas development, but they are no more dire than the risks posed by any other natural resource development. The forestry industry that New Brunswick is famous for poses as much risk to water quality; and the agriculture industry over the years has caused more damage to groundwater than any other industry. In the last 20 years the agriculture industry and forestry industries have proven to be sustainable when regulated properly. The government of New Brunswick has made good strides to learn from the mistakes made in the US in regards to shale gas development, and put in place regulations to avoid these mistakes.

The key to any regulation, be it traffic, environmental or fiscal, is to have enforcement of the regulations. This will be a key part of the safe development of the shale gas industry, the government must provide the human resources and budget to properly enforce its stringent regulations for the industry.

The other question mark with the development of this industry in New Brunswick is in regards to revenue to be gained. The government has made strides to strengthen the royalty structure to ensure New Brunswick citizens see the financial benefits of this industry, and these strides need to continue.

The last fact I will leave you with, faithful reader, is to point out that no company has yet to confirm that they will be doing any hydrofracking in New Brunswick. The seismic testing that has been done over the last few years does not automatically mean that fracking will take place. This exploration phase is meant to ensure there is enough gas or oil in the ground to make production profitable. With natural gas prices falling over the last few years, the size of the reservoirs in New Brunswick may not warrant the expense of extraction, and this debate could be for naught.

As always, I encourage everyone to think for yourself, do some research and make sure you base your opinions and decisions on facts; not conjecture, hype, emotion or sound bites.