So our new NB premier has followed through on his campaign promise and put a moratorium on shale gas development in NB. As a supporter of this incredible economic opportunity for NB, I will admit I am disappointed in the delay in developing this industry, and my hope is that it does not kill the oil industry interest in the industry in NB.
My first reaction to the moratorium was disappointment, and the residual effects of that reaction remain, but I am now trying to see the positive here. Premier Gallant has essentially said he wants to get his ducks in a row before continuing with this industry. Fair enough; there is plenty of science and statistics available that show a well regulated shale gas industry can be developed with minimal risks to the environment. A proper regulatory scheme should also include a solid royalty structure that ensures the province makes a fair share of money off the development of the resource. So by all means Premier Gallant, make sure you understand the regulations and the royalties, but do it quickly.
Time is of the essence here; if the moratorium lasts too long, the industry will lose interest and move on to other regions. The current drop in oil prices will be temporary...even the majority of the OPEC countries cannot make money when the price is this low...it will rebound back to more realistic levels and shale gas will continue to make economic sense.
The 5 conditions that Premier Gallant says must be met to have the moratorium lifted are all conditions that the government itself can fulfill; so it is within their power to get them done quickly.
1. The aboriginal people have been asking to be consulted for years, so I am sure they will be available to consults at minimal notice. Do the right thing and offer them a percentage of the royalties for development done on their land; makes perfect sense and will help them improve conditions in their communities.
2. Development of a royalty structure; this should be easy, the previous government had a structure in place; so just make whatever adjustments you think need to be made and be done with it. You can change the name and authors and rebrand it as a Liberal plan, but it shouldn't need much work, its mostly done. If you need examples of royalty plans that work, talk to Saskatchewan, BC and Alberta.
3. The plan for mitigating the impacts on public infrastructure and address water disposal; again, this has been mostly done by the previous government, and surely you asked the Albertans about how they have done this, and lessons learned, when you were out there a few weeks back; so this should be easy to check the box off. Again, ask your colleagues in Saskatchewan.
4. Clear, credible information about the health, environment and water impacts of fracking to develop industry leading regulatory regime; this was done by the former government, but if you want more information, there is plenty out their. This has been a hot topic in North America in recent years and their is a wealth of information available. Ask the ADMs and other civil servants who have been looking at this for 3-4 years now, they can give you lots of info I am sure!
5. Get a social license; this can be really easy to check off because this is so vague, no one knows what it means. So; you can have a quick round of public consultations (public or private) and then announce that you have gained a social license. Another easy one to check off.
So, as you can see, most of the work is already done. In a practical sense, the moratorium could be lifted within 6 months....if you really want to get the work done.
Mr. Premier, you say you want to right the fiscal ship that is NB's economy, and you say job creation is your top priority. If that truly is the case, you need to make fulfilling the 5 moratorium conditions a number one priority.
Get these conditions met as quickly as possible, so we can continue "moving NB forward", as you are keen on saying.
