A Trumpian Future

So now we have President Trump…amazing and depressing as it is, it is the reality. The fact that he came to power via a democratic process, flawed as it may be, illustrates some depressing things about the a large swath of the American public. Sure, he didn’t win the popular vote and a lot of folks seem to be against him, but there is enough people who agree with him to get him into power. Whether through ignorance, apathy, or lack of knowledge, many Americans believe that the problems in the USA are caused by politicians, immigrants, foreign governments and companies following the global economy trend. And they believe President Trump can fix it all.

The question now is, what will he do with his power? It is a hard question to answer because he seems to answer policy questions differently day to day. One day he is praising the Russian leader and saying he respects him more than a two term sitting US president, then next he is saying sanctions should be maintained. One day he says Obamacare is destroying the country, then next day he is saying it just needs to be tweaked. So, let’s look at how some of the things he may do could affect the USA’s North American cousins to the north, namely Canada.

Let’s start with the apparent leaning towards persecution of certain groups of Americans, such as non-heterosexuals, Muslims, and pretty much any group that is not white, Christian America. Many of these persecuted groups contain some of the most progressive, intelligent and innovative sorts of Americans. Exactly the kind of people that Canada prides itself on welcoming. Our timing in electing a progressive, welcoming, and downright loveable prime minister could not have been better.

Now more than ever, Canada will be viewed as the more welcoming, progressive and loveable alternative to the USA. We have a lot of the good parts of American society without a lot of the bad parts. One is much less likely to be shot, one has more control over your own body (especially female bodies), one can get health care regardless of where one works or lives, and ones children will get a good public education whether you are affluent or not. Canada could very well see an uptick in immigration from the US. Or we could see people who would normally choose to go to America, choosing to come to Canada instead. Immigration is good for Canada; especially in regions with shrinking and aging populations (such as Atlantic Canada).

If Trump continues his isolationist ways and follows through on his intentions to punish companies that try to take advantage of the modern global economy, some of those companies may see Canada as an alternative base of operations which still offers proximity to the US market, but allows them to participate in globalization.

Now those are the positives for Canada; there is lots of possible negative too. Trump’s apparent lack of knowledge of the complexities of international relations could very well lead to a more unstable international stage, and in a worse case could lead to more armed conflicts. As history has taught us; conflicts tend to suck everyone into the battle. From recent conflicts in Libya, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan to the 1950s Korean war and the two World Wars. History has shown us that a heavy handed or ill-advised reaction from the Americans can destabilize what at times seems to be a precarious global peace.

If America goes back to policies based on “America is the greatest country in the world” or even worse “God bless America”; this could play into the hands of groups like ISIS and North Korea who promote the idea that the west is imperialistic and corrupt. ISIS is a caliphate which means they want to have an armed conflict on the battle field against the West. This battle would vindicate their worldview of ISIS as the liberator of the world from Western suppression.

Speaking of this; Donald Trump represents the epitome of what extremists think about the Americans. They teach that the western powers are God less imperialists driven by the accumulation of money and the amalgamation of power. Trump is a poster boy for how they like to portray Americans. His aggressive language towards all Muslims, with talk of a Muslim registry, give credence to ISIS recruiters pitch to disenfranchised and radicalized Muslims. In a strange way, Donald Trump could be the best thing that ever happened to ISIS and groups like it.

Despite the possible benefits to Canada from a Trumpian future, the economic fact remains; the USA is by far our largest trading partner, so any changes to trade agreements could have very negative effects on the Canadian economy. Even if we can shift our trade volumes to other markets such as China or South America, it takes time and will be a painful process.

And of course, when one widens the focus of effects from just Canada to the entire globe; any time a group(s) of people are persecuted for beliefs, gender, lack of gender, color of skin, or nationality, it damages the entire global community. It’s interesting that Martin Luther King day was just this past week; let me quote him here “Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”

Empathy for refugees and taxes well spent

I watch with pride as Canada comes together to do all we can to help those in need. Canada has always been the empathetic and helpful neighbour on the global neighbourhood and I am very proud to show my Canadian colours as I travel the world. The media coverage of the recent Syrian refugee crisis has provided a snap shot of the strengths and weaknesses of that same global neighbourhood.

Those countries and individuals who have opened their doors and pocketbooks to help these people forced out of their family homes and then forced out of their home country has been heartwarming to see. It is a natural tendency of humans to try to help when we see others suffering. This tendency has waned a bit in modern society, but the average person still has empathy towards those who have horrible things done to them, or are put through hardship.

On the negative  side, we have seen some push back against helping these people. The fact that they share nationality with known terrorists has caused some to question whether they should help. The US has fallen victim to this fear. If rational thought is used, it becomes clear that the good far outweighs the potential bad when it comes to helping these people. If you allow your fear of what happened in Paris and other places to override your basic tendency to help those in need, then those creating the terror have achieved their goal.

If you question whether we should help, please consider for a moment what they have endured. Imagine if our government began implementing policies that limited freedoms and persecuted certain groups that did not agree with them. Imagine if then someone tried to stop these practices through protests that lead to armed conflict.

You may not have been involved in any of the protests or conflicts; you may have just tried to continue living your life, going to work, shopping for groceries, going to school. But then your school was destroyed by the fighting, your place of work was destroyed and then your home was destroyed or became part of a battle field. You would have no choice but to gather your family and run. Moving away from the conflict would be your only basic option.

Where would you run? Imagine if after all this, you realize that the countries neighbouring yours were also a war zone and had been taken over by tyrants and terrorists. Desperation sets in and you are left with very few options and likely end up either risking your life (and your families) to try to escape, or you end up in a refugee camp. A refugee camp is essentially a slum with rules and some food and water provided. But when the alternative for your family is death and persecution, the risk is all you have.

Now remember, these people were not poor or destitute  before this all started; they were doctors, lawyers, secretaries, salesmen, programmers, etc. They had careers, homes, hobbies; a life; and it has all been taken from them.

This is the plight of the refugees coming to Canada. Imagine how grateful you would be in the above described situation if a safe, prosperous and friendly country opened its doors and said "Please come live with us, we want to help you." Imagine the gratitude, relief and happiness you would feel. Imagine how hard you would work when you got to that country to repay them. Imagine how hard you would work to help make that country a better place for your family, for your children.

As I watch the pictures of these families crossing the Mediterranean, leaving in refugee camps and then arriving in Canada and now see stories of the children starting school, I am imagine if that was my daughters , my wife and me. I imagine trying to keep my daughters safe and fed, let alone happy, while enduring those hardships. It breaks my heart to just imagine my 11 year old trying to sleep on the street, or in a tent. Or my 8 year old trying to find something to eat in a refugee camp. I think about how upset they would be if their schools or our house was ruined.

It is hard to imagine what they have gone through and I am glad that my hard earned tax dollars are helping these people. If there was ever a good use of tax payers money, rescuing and supporting these families is it.

Bilingual without Immersion?

As a parent of 2 school age girls, this topic has hit close to home in recent years, but has been percolating in my mind for many years, perhaps even since I was a part of the NB school system myself.

Let me start by saying I have no vendetta against bilingualism and can see the merits of being Canada's only officially bilingual province. I agree that individuals should be encouraged and enabled to protect and practice their culture. Personally, I am very proud of my Scottish heritage and try to pass down some of that pride to my girls. My wife's Lebanese heritage is very important to us also, and several aspects of that culture have been passed down to us by her parents and grandparents. 

But I have struggled for years to get an answer to a relatively simple question. Why do students need to be fully immersed in a language to learn that language? Why do children who primarily speak English (or other non-French languages) outside of school, need to learn all subjects in French in order to learn the French language? To be clear, I agree that it is good for our children to learn French and graduate from high school being fully bilingual, but I don't understand why we need to create a dual track school system with a full immersion in French to reach that goal.

I didn't do it, but when I was going through the core english school system 20 years ago, I could have taken French language courses all through my 12 years of schooling, and then graduated with a full bilingual ability. My older, wiser self wishes I had.

My wife went through the French immersion system in the same era, and she feels like having learnt all her school subjects in French has hurt her as an adult. Not knowing the English terminology has hurt her when she is trying to apply these terms in the real world, which uses english as its main language. She has used her bilingual abilities in her career, and is glad she speaks French, but feels should could have the same abilities without have been fully immersed.

The reality is, most of university and post secondary degrees are taught in English. So if, for example, my daughters finished school in the French immersion system, and then decided to go to MIT, or Queens, or UNB to take Engineering, they will have a disadvantage at first, because they will have to translate all of the math and science they have been taught in French back to English.

I would be very happy if my daughters graduate from high school being fully bilingual, and I will encourage them to do so. I will encourage them to learn French, Spanish and Chinese, as these languages will help them communicate with a wide majority of the people they will meet on this earth; but I will not put them in French immersion, because I do not see the advantage of it.

I understand that as a bilingual province we have a responsibility to allow our French speaking residents to learn in the French language and by extension their protect their French culture; but this does not require an immersion track. We have a network of French-only schools for that purpose, and I am happy we provide that. Carrying the logic through, I would expect to see Chinese or Korean or other language specific schools be provided if other populations reach similar levels to the French speakers in the province.

If anyone has more information on why immersion is required to produce bilingual students, please provide it, and I would be happy to study it. I would actually feel better if I learnt that there was a good reason for our immersion program, not just a political motivation.

In a practical sense, this system creates hardship for children like mine, who make friends from K to grade 2, and then have many of those school friends leave their school and go elsewhere in grade 3. I can tell you for a fact that this transition has caused many tears and heartfelt conversations at bed time in my house. And they don't ask me to put them in French immersion...they don't want to have to switch to learning everything in French. My 11 year old loves her French classes though, and has embraced the language, despite remaining in core English.

2% More is Easy money...

I admit, I did not make it to the budget consultation session held by our new government last night in Fredericton. I will further admit that I am not up to date on the latest deficit and debt numbers for NB. 

BUT, the plan I blogged about 2 years ago (Feb 9, 2013) after attending one of the last governments budget consultations still holds true today.

Here's an excerpt:

"Here's what I am talking about....Higgs and others have said that NB has a revenue problem, and from what I can see that is true; but based on the numbers presented, I don't see why this is the case. From the 3rd last slide of my Higgs presentation, we could rescind the personal income tax cuts ($320M) and corporate income tax  cuts ($25M) put in place by the previous government and that would raise $345M in revenue. If we went a step further and raised the HST by 2% we would see $270M in revenue. If I do my math right, that adds up to $615M in new revenue. There has been calls from many sources, including the NB Business Council, to rescind the tax cuts; so there is support there. The HST increase would be harder to swallow and would be resisted more, but it is do-able; especially if you put programs in place to protect low income earners."

So the Gallant government has announced that they want to find ways to save $500 million per year; so an HST hike would get you half way there. I think if you explained to citizens that the 2% increase in consumption tax would be going directly to pay off the deficit, the "social license" would exist to make this happen. If you further explained that this would help limit the program cuts and job cuts needed to fix the fiscal mess, the support would be there.

And to the retailers that say this will keep customers away; I don't buy it. Paying $1 more for a $50 meal out with my wife is not going to keep me home. Paying $600 more for a $30,000 car is not going to effect my decision to buy. If $40 extra on a $2000 TV is going to sway your decision, you probably can't afford the TV in the first place.

Lets keep things in perspective here folks.

5 conditions that can be met quickly.

So our new NB premier has followed through on his campaign promise and put a moratorium on shale gas development in NB. As a supporter of this incredible economic opportunity for NB, I will admit I am disappointed in the delay in developing this industry, and my hope is that it does not kill the oil industry interest in the industry in NB.

My first reaction to the moratorium was disappointment, and the residual effects of that reaction remain, but I am now trying to see the positive here. Premier Gallant has essentially said he wants to get his ducks in a row before continuing with this industry. Fair enough; there is plenty of science and statistics available that show a well regulated shale gas industry can be developed with minimal risks to the environment. A proper regulatory scheme should also include a solid royalty structure that ensures the province makes a fair share of money off the development of the resource. So by all means Premier Gallant, make sure you understand the regulations and the royalties, but do it quickly.

Time is of the essence here; if the moratorium lasts too long, the industry will lose interest and move on to other regions. The current drop in oil prices will be temporary...even the majority of the OPEC countries cannot make money when the price is this low...it will rebound back to more realistic levels and shale gas will continue to make economic sense.

The 5 conditions that Premier Gallant says must be met to have the moratorium lifted are all conditions that the government itself can fulfill; so it is within their power to get them done quickly.

1. The aboriginal people have been asking to be consulted for years, so I am sure they will be available to consults at minimal notice. Do the right thing and offer them a percentage of the royalties for development done on their land; makes perfect sense and will help them improve conditions in their communities.

2. Development of a royalty structure; this should be easy, the previous government had a structure in place; so just make whatever adjustments you think need to be made and be done with it. You can change the name and authors and rebrand it as a Liberal plan, but it shouldn't need much work, its mostly done. If you need examples of royalty plans that work, talk to Saskatchewan, BC and Alberta.

3. The plan for mitigating the impacts on public infrastructure and address water disposal; again, this has been mostly done by the previous government, and surely you asked the Albertans about how they have done this, and lessons learned, when you were out there a few weeks back; so this should be easy to check the box off. Again, ask your colleagues in Saskatchewan.

4. Clear, credible information about the health, environment and water impacts of fracking to develop industry leading regulatory regime; this was done by the former government, but if you want more information, there is plenty out their. This has been a hot topic in North America in recent years and their is a wealth of information available. Ask the ADMs and other civil servants who have been looking at this for 3-4 years now, they can give you lots of info I am sure!

5. Get a social license; this can be really easy to check off because this is so vague, no one knows what it means. So; you can have a quick round of public consultations (public or private) and then announce that you have gained a social license. Another easy one to check off.

So, as you can see, most of the work is already done. In a practical sense, the moratorium could be lifted within 6 months....if you really want to get the work done.

Mr. Premier, you say you want to right the fiscal ship that is NB's economy, and you say job creation is your top priority. If that truly is the case, you need to make fulfilling the 5 moratorium conditions a number one priority.

Get these conditions met as quickly as possible, so we can continue "moving NB forward", as you are keen on saying.

Glorious and Free

So it seems we have lost our innocence; or those who still had it have anyway. The violence and threat of violence that is present around the modern world has hit home for Canadians. The killing of one of our soldiers in Quebec on Monday was a crack in the mask of innocence, but the attack on our parliament yesterday grabbed that mask and shattered it on the ground.

The fact that we are at war with a sophisticated and far reaching enemy has not just been highlighted, but has jumped up and slapped us in the face. For too long, we have collectively had the attitude that the terrorists were not interested in friendly old Canada; who would want to hurt us; we invented peace keeping, we had one of the few non-violent independence movements back in the 1860's. We are the kinder, gentler of the North American cousins.

But we have stepped up and said we will help fight an enemy that most feel must be stopped. To be clear, this is not a fight against Islam...this enemy is very far from the core tenants of the Muslim religion. This enemy is brutal and an affront to human rights, human decency and wants nothing less than the destruction of all who disagree with their extreme beliefs. This fight is not a veiled move to secure oil reserves, or avenge a terrorist attack, as some recent fights have been; this is akin to the scourge that was Hitler and Japan in 1939. We have to help in this fight, it is our responsibility as a modern nation.

But still, even for a witness like myself, who I like to think had no innocence about our vulnerability; it was shocking to see and hear about a gunman (or multiply gunmen) attacking our nations most sacred places. I watched in shock the video of gun fire in the Hall of Honour. As many have, I have walked that hall, I have browsed the front lawn of Parliament...this violence and terror there was shocking.

We live in a world were groups want to attack innocents and where implements of mass murder (guns and bombs) are fairly easy to obtain. Our armed forces and police organizations are not just there to fight overseas and provide security for parades and protests...they carefully train, plan and run security drills for a reason.

 Barricades around important landmarks and metal detectors at entrances are common place in most other areas of the world. You cannot get close to the front door of the White House, of Congress, of Buckingham Palace or many other landmarks around the world. In Paris, it is hard to ignore the presence of heavily armed soldiers near all the famous landmarks. Most of the world has lost its innocence when it comes to security and terrorism; now Canada has also.

We are no less safe today than we were yesterday, but we are now more aware of that safety or lack there of. When our military asks for more funding, or our security experts put more barricades and security procedures in place, we will better understand why these things are necessary.

BUT... we will remain glorious and free, and we will remain the friendly, polite, neighbour with the great sense of humour on the world stage. We will still say thank you and sorry and we will still be the one's who soften the American ways and strengthen the European tendencies and personalize the Asian efficiencies. We are still the model for a free, socially responsible and secure nation, and that is why the terrorists want to change us...lets not let them have the satisfaction.

O Canada, glorious and free!

Johanna Jessie Mackenzie - A force of nature

My Grandmother passed away this evening in her home in Cape Breton...she was very sick since the weekend, and I was compelled to write about her a couple of days ago, it became a tribute. My wife encouraged me to post it here:

A force of nature…not a cliché, but the truth. Since I was very young, my grandmother has been just that to me, and to all who knew her well. Not a blustering wind, or a rushing rain storm, but a calm breeze or a quite glen in the woods. She never raised her voice, never got overly excited, but her strong hands were attuned to the places she grew up. Born and raised in the middle of Bras d’Or lake and never living far from its shores for all her 96 years, she was apart of the place. She was gentle and calm, always telling us to “leave those poor beasts alone” when we removed a hornets nest, or shoo a ferret or mouse from the house.  She was as close a person I have ever know to mother nature. Not that she communed with nature like a hippy, but she appreciated and coveted being exposed to the wonders and hardships of nature. She loved nothing more than the simple pleasures of a walk down the road or a swim in the lake.

She raised a family on the shore of the lake and helped raise all of us grandchildren too. She spoiled us, but not too much, and indulged us but also kept a close eye. During my sister’s sicknesses as I grew up, I spent a lot of time with my grandmother in West Bay, and despite my fear of the deep dark and her illusive cat Dusty, I looked forward to my stays with her. She always made sure she had a fresh batch of my favorite treat, cinnamon buns, ready when I arrived. We would go into town and buy fresh mackerel and other things and have great meals in her kitchen. She had fishing rods on hand so I could drop a line in the brook or the lake…though I never caught anything.

In her later years she lost the ability to go for a walk or swim in her beloved lake, but in her moments of clarity, her stories were always about the lake and the adventure that it was to live on an island in the middle of a lake.

While she was raising 5 sons and a daughter, she worked at the lumber camps feeding the workers, and boarded more workers and fed them at the house. Then in another phase of her life, she became one of the longest serving mail workers in Nova Scotia. She was proud of the fact that she trained many mail workers and took pride in the important service of delivering the mail. The house in West Bay housed the mail office through the 70s and 80s, and as happens became one of the hubs of the community.

My grandmother did enjoy retirement, going to Florida for the winter for serveral years and becoming a regular at card plays around the county. As she began to fail and was not able to drive, she still walked several miles a day and easily climbed the hill to her daughters house. In later years, when she could not walk to the lake or even swim in the lake any longer, her favorite activity was to go for a drive along the lake shore. Her main perch in the house over the years overlooked her lake. Even after 90+ years living near it, she always marveled at the beauty of a sunset on the lake, or at some bird on the lake.

I had the luck to spend a fair bit of time with my grandmother during the formative years of my life and in hindsight, I can see that she helped form the man I have become. Everytime I see a sunset, or wonder at some landscape I see as I travel the globe for my job, I am channeling the wonder and respect for nature that she taught me. I am told I have an easy nature and an ability to put people at ease; this comes from both my father and mother; but I saw the power of an even keel from my grandmother too. An even keel that can gain speed and ram you if you got out of line. Her dry humor and quick wit when critiquing someone are legendary, and I like to think I carry some of that charm. Only a few months ago, when one of the homecare workers asked me about my kids, Grammy quickly commented “You don’t have any goats do your Mark?”, her years teaching her brothers and sisters on the island showing through. I didn’t think she was listening, and could not help my laugh.

Growing up in rural Nova Scotia on the shores of this lake formed a granite back bone in this force of nature, and we can all attest to the toughness of our grandmother. Losing a husband, losing 2 sons, a shattered arm, and countless other set backs could not slow her. Even when her body started to fail her, she pushed on longer than others would have had the fortitude to do so. She comes from hardy stock and the hardships of lake living only tempered that stock and made it seemingly indestructible.

I will miss my grandmother, but it was her time. She lived all the life she was given, but it is time she had a rest. I take solace in the idea that she is now at peace and watching over us all. This place, this lake, will always resonate with her presence.