A Trumpian Future

So now we have President Trump…amazing and depressing as it is, it is the reality. The fact that he came to power via a democratic process, flawed as it may be, illustrates some depressing things about the a large swath of the American public. Sure, he didn’t win the popular vote and a lot of folks seem to be against him, but there is enough people who agree with him to get him into power. Whether through ignorance, apathy, or lack of knowledge, many Americans believe that the problems in the USA are caused by politicians, immigrants, foreign governments and companies following the global economy trend. And they believe President Trump can fix it all.

The question now is, what will he do with his power? It is a hard question to answer because he seems to answer policy questions differently day to day. One day he is praising the Russian leader and saying he respects him more than a two term sitting US president, then next he is saying sanctions should be maintained. One day he says Obamacare is destroying the country, then next day he is saying it just needs to be tweaked. So, let’s look at how some of the things he may do could affect the USA’s North American cousins to the north, namely Canada.

Let’s start with the apparent leaning towards persecution of certain groups of Americans, such as non-heterosexuals, Muslims, and pretty much any group that is not white, Christian America. Many of these persecuted groups contain some of the most progressive, intelligent and innovative sorts of Americans. Exactly the kind of people that Canada prides itself on welcoming. Our timing in electing a progressive, welcoming, and downright loveable prime minister could not have been better.

Now more than ever, Canada will be viewed as the more welcoming, progressive and loveable alternative to the USA. We have a lot of the good parts of American society without a lot of the bad parts. One is much less likely to be shot, one has more control over your own body (especially female bodies), one can get health care regardless of where one works or lives, and ones children will get a good public education whether you are affluent or not. Canada could very well see an uptick in immigration from the US. Or we could see people who would normally choose to go to America, choosing to come to Canada instead. Immigration is good for Canada; especially in regions with shrinking and aging populations (such as Atlantic Canada).

If Trump continues his isolationist ways and follows through on his intentions to punish companies that try to take advantage of the modern global economy, some of those companies may see Canada as an alternative base of operations which still offers proximity to the US market, but allows them to participate in globalization.

Now those are the positives for Canada; there is lots of possible negative too. Trump’s apparent lack of knowledge of the complexities of international relations could very well lead to a more unstable international stage, and in a worse case could lead to more armed conflicts. As history has taught us; conflicts tend to suck everyone into the battle. From recent conflicts in Libya, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan to the 1950s Korean war and the two World Wars. History has shown us that a heavy handed or ill-advised reaction from the Americans can destabilize what at times seems to be a precarious global peace.

If America goes back to policies based on “America is the greatest country in the world” or even worse “God bless America”; this could play into the hands of groups like ISIS and North Korea who promote the idea that the west is imperialistic and corrupt. ISIS is a caliphate which means they want to have an armed conflict on the battle field against the West. This battle would vindicate their worldview of ISIS as the liberator of the world from Western suppression.

Speaking of this; Donald Trump represents the epitome of what extremists think about the Americans. They teach that the western powers are God less imperialists driven by the accumulation of money and the amalgamation of power. Trump is a poster boy for how they like to portray Americans. His aggressive language towards all Muslims, with talk of a Muslim registry, give credence to ISIS recruiters pitch to disenfranchised and radicalized Muslims. In a strange way, Donald Trump could be the best thing that ever happened to ISIS and groups like it.

Despite the possible benefits to Canada from a Trumpian future, the economic fact remains; the USA is by far our largest trading partner, so any changes to trade agreements could have very negative effects on the Canadian economy. Even if we can shift our trade volumes to other markets such as China or South America, it takes time and will be a painful process.

And of course, when one widens the focus of effects from just Canada to the entire globe; any time a group(s) of people are persecuted for beliefs, gender, lack of gender, color of skin, or nationality, it damages the entire global community. It’s interesting that Martin Luther King day was just this past week; let me quote him here “Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”